by sparr0
Scorpion0x17 wrote:
The problem, Clarence, is simply that your claim that your loss came down to a single event is just, plain, vanilla, wrong.
KoT is a cumulative random event game. Everything that lead up to your loss also contributed to it.
KoT is a cumulative random event game. Everything that lead up to your loss also contributed to it.
I'll try explaining this in a different fashion.
Let's visualize the progress of the game as an X Y chart. The X axis is time (or the progression of turns, and actions within turns), the Y axis spans from 0 to 100 and is the probability of winning the game. At the start of a four player game, all four players are at 25%. Throughout the game, each action, random or not, changes some players' positions on the chart. Good decisions and good luck increase your position, at the expense of one or more others'. Bad decisions and bad luck have the opposite effect. At the end of the game, one player is at 100% and the others are at 0% (a more complicated version of this chart would indicate the positional ranking of the players at the end of the game, but I'll forego that for this illustration)
The thing I am objecting to is the greatest possible absolute value of the slope of that line. My idea of a good amount of [that factor] to have in a game is for one random event to raise or lower a player a few percentage points on that chart. So if a player has a very high probability of winning, it takes a lot of unlucky events and/or poor decisions for them to lose, and if a player has a very low probability of winning, it takes a lot of lucky events and/or good decisions for them to win. I would prefer for it to be impossible for a situation to arise in which a player with a very high probability of winning can lose through a single random event, or for a player with a very low probability of winning to win through a single random event.
(I didn't continue the chart beyond my loss. The game ended two rounds later with a victory for the player represented by green in the chart.)
PS: There is also a factor of how many random events go by in between a player's opportunity to take actions, but that only exacerbates the issue in this case, so I didn't feel the need to cover it above.